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Episode 7
Why More Buyers Could Mean Fewer Homes in 2026–2027
Canada’s housing market is expected to rebound in 2026 and 2027, but not for the reasons many people think. In this episode of Smart Moves, we break down CREA’s latest forecast and explain The Supply Paradox: how rising demand, driven by first-time buyers, could actually lead to fewer homes available and tighter market conditions.
Canadian Housing Market Forecast (CREA 2026–2027)
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has released its updated national forecast following a slower-than-expected 2025 marked by economic uncertainty and U.S. tariff concerns.
Here’s the key issue many people are missing. The projected market recovery is being driven largely by first-time buyers. First-time buyers remove homes from inventory but do not add new listings. This creates a supply imbalance where demand increases, inventory decreases, and market conditions tighten.
What This Means for Buyers and Homeowners:
✅ Buyers: Waiting for “perfect” conditions may result in fewer choices and more competition.
✅ Homeowners: Equity planning and selling strategies should account for potential supply shortages.
✅ Investors: Tight supply often impacts rental markets and long-term appreciation.
If new listings do not rise alongside buyer demand, inventory could deplete quickly, putting pressure on prices and competition earlier than expected. Thus, understanding supply dynamics is just as important as watching interest rates.
What’s Next?
CREA will release its next housing market forecast on Thursday, April 16, 2026. Inventory levels will be a key metric to watch as demand accelerates.
If you want to understand how these trends impact your home value, mortgage options, or next move, explore the tools and resources at PropertySmart.ca.
Smart moves start with clarity.
Tools to Help You Act Strategically – Not Emotionally
Success in real estate isn’t about luck. It’s about having the right tools, at the right time, for the right move. These resources are designed to help you prepare, plan, and proceed with confidence; whether you’re buying, selling, or just mapping out what’s next.
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Smart Moves Episode 7: Structured Transcript & Key Insights
This structured summary highlights the key insights from Episode 7, offering buyers, homeowners, and investors a clear breakdown of CREA’s 2026–2027 housing forecast and the supply dynamics shaping Canada’s next real estate cycle.
Click to expand full summary transcript
- Sales Recovery Ahead: National home sales are forecast to rise 5.1% in 2026 and a further 3.5% in 2027, driven largely by pent-up demand.
- First-Time Buyers Lead the Rebound: Buyers sidelined for nearly four years are expected to re-enter the market as rate stability restores confidence.
- Interest Rate Stability Matters: While rates remain elevated, the Bank of Canada’s late-2025 guidance suggests stability has replaced uncertainty.
- Moderate Price Growth: National average prices are projected to rise 2.8% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027, keeping growth controlled rather than speculative.
- Seven-Year Price Plateau: If forecasts hold, Canada will mark seven consecutive years with average home prices hovering near the $700,000 range.
- Regional Divergence: BC and Ontario are expected to lead sales growth, while stronger price appreciation is forecast in more affordable provinces.
- The Supply Paradox: First-time buyers remove homes from inventory without adding listings, increasing the risk of supply tightening.
- Inventory Risk: Without a rise in new listings, inventory levels could deplete faster than many forecasts anticipate.
- Strategic Implications: Buyers, homeowners, and investors should consider supply trends alongside interest rates when planning next steps.
- Final Thought: Market recovery does not guarantee availability; understanding supply dynamics is key to making informed real estate decisions.
Wondering how the next phase of Canada’s housing market could affect your Edmonton real estate and mortgage plans?
With buyer demand expected to rise and inventory at risk of tightening, understanding supply dynamics matters more than watching headlines alone. Our Episode 7 breaks down CREA’s 2026–2027 forecast and explains why availability, not just rates, may shape the next real estate cycle.
Whether you’re planning your first purchase, reviewing your home equity, refinancing, or considering a sale, Property Smart Advisors helps you interpret the data, assess your options, and move forward with clarity when the timing is right.
Missed Previous Episodes?
Catch up on expert insights, smart tools, and practical advice from earlier episodes of Smart Moves: Your Real Estate and Mortgage Podcast. Browse All Past Episodes
- Smart Moves 101: Mortgages, Pre-Approvals & the Home Buying Journey
Your complete beginner’s guide to navigating Canadian mortgages and real estate. - AI Meets Emotions: How Technology Is Reshaping the Home Buying Experience
Discover how AI tools and emotional decision-making intersect in real estate. - Canada’s 2025 Housing Outlook: Rates, Tariffs & Whether to Wait
We break down TD’s market forecast and what it means for real buyers and sellers. - Edmonton Q1 Market Recap: Stats, Surprises & Strategic Moves
Dig into the data: what Q1 2025 means for Edmonton homeowners and investors. - When to Buy or Sell Real Estate in Edmonton
Timing the market: why playing the waiting game could actually cost you more. - Navigating Edmonton’s Fall Market – Prices, Pressure, and Possibilities
Cooler Market, Smarter Moves: Edmonton Housing Trends, September 2025.
Smart real estate decisions aren’t about timing the market perfectly. They’re about understanding how the pieces fit together; your home value, your financing options, and the market conditions shaping supply and demand.
At Property Smart Advisors, we simplify the process by connecting real estate insight with mortgage strategy, so decisions don’t happen in silos. You get clear explanations, relevant data, and practical guidance…without having to piece things together from multiple sources.
Our real estate services are proudly delivered in partnership with Coldwell Banker Mountain Central, giving clients access to proven systems, experienced professionals, and programs like Your home SOLD guaranteed, or we’ll buy it!
Whether you’re reviewing your home’s value, planning your next purchase, or exploring financing options, Property Smart Advisors helps you see the full picture and move forward with confidence. Visit PropertySmart.ca to explore our tools, connect with an expert, and plan your next move with clarity.
